New study shows more UK mums stopping at one child – and it’s not just about money
Fewer mums are having second or third babies, with education and timing playing a bigger role than income
A new study has revealed that more mums across the UK are choosing to have just one child – and it’s not being driven by the cost of living alone.
Researchers analysing three decades of birth data found a steady drop in second and third births, especially in Scotland.
And while money pressures and childcare costs often get the blame, the findings suggest that timing and education might be more important than we think.
Second and third baby rates are falling – especially in Scotland
The research, published in Population Studies, used national data from England, Wales and Scotland to track childbearing by birth order. While first births have dipped and risen over the years, second and third births have seen a longer-term decline – particularly north of the border.
Scottish women were found to be less likely than women in England or Wales to have a second or third child. The authors suggest this is not due to longer birth intervals but rather a lower likelihood of having another child at all.
It’s not all about ethnicity or money – education matters more
Contrary to common assumptions, changes in ethnic composition or immigration patterns explain little of the fertility trend.
Instead, the researchers point to age and education as more influential factors. Highly educated women tend to delay family formation, meaning they have fewer years available to have multiple children. Meanwhile, first-birth rates have declined most sharply among women with lower levels of education.
Declining second births are a big part of the picture
The study confirms that while overall birth rates dropped in the 1990s, it was second- and third-birth rates – not just fewer first-time mums – driving long-term change. From the early 2000s onwards, second-birth rates in England and Wales stayed relatively stable, but Scotland saw a new decline.
Crucially, birth intervals haven’t changed much. So the decline in second and third babies reflects a shift in completed family size, not just spacing between children.
Highly educated mums more likely to have two – but not always more
The study also found that mums with university degrees were more likely to have a second child compared to those with fewer qualifications. This might seem surprising – but could reflect the fact that those who start families later tend to plan more intentionally for two children, and often have shorter birth intervals to reach that goal.
That said, third and fourth births have become increasingly rare across all groups, regardless of education or ethnicity.
What does this mean for mums today?
This growing trend of stopping at one child reflects broader social shifts – including delayed family formation, higher educational attainment and changing ideas about what family life looks like.
The authors write that “changes in second- and third-birth quantum rather than timing are responsible for the trends,” especially in Scotland, and that changes in population composition “explain little of Britain’s recent fertility dynamics.”
In other words, according to this report, UK family sizes are shrinking not just because life is expensive or housing is tight – but because more women are actively choosing to stop at one.
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Authors
Ruairidh is the Digital Lead on MadeForMums. He works with a team of fantastically talented content creators and subject-matter experts on MadeForMums.