Is your family a Budget 2025 winner or loser? From stealth taxes to free childcare, here’s who’s hit

We’ve crunched the numbers, the policy details and the OBR forecasts to figure out who really benefits and who gets left behind.

Below, we break it down with 10 relatable family set-ups. Which one sounds like yours?

1. Two-parent family on Universal Credit

Verdict: WINNER

Scrapping the two-child benefit cap is a game-changer here, bringing an average £5,310 a year boost. Add increases to Universal Credit and child benefit from April, plus free school meals coming in 2026, and they’re significantly better off.

2. Single parent with a 2-year-old in nursery

Verdict: MIXED

They may gain modestly from wage growth and rising minimum wage, but soaring childcare costs could cancel it all out. That said, they do keep access to childcare support, unlike those earning over £100k.

3. Dual-income couple (GP and teacher) with 2 children in nursery

Verdict: LOSER

Despite a decent joint income, they’re caught in the £100k childcare trap, losing access to government childcare help. With frozen tax thresholds dragging them into higher bands, plus no help with mortgages or stamp duty, they’re taking multiple financial hits.

4. Single mum on maternity leave from a public sector role

Verdict: MIXED

She might benefit indirectly from NHS investment, but maternity services, perinatal mental health and health visitors are still underfunded. Her income is stable for now, but frozen thresholds will sting when she returns to work.

5. Family with two teens, looking to upsize from a 3-bed

Verdict: LOSER

No stamp duty relief. No housing support. And mortgage payments have soared 47 percent since 2021. According to the OBR, house prices are rising again, making this family more likely to stay stuck in a space that’s no longer right for them.

6. Parents of a 17-year-old not in higher education

Verdict: POTENTIAL WINNER

There’s new investment in youth employment and skills training, which could be a lifeline for young people outside the university path. But the OBR warns it all depends on how well the rollout is handled locally.

7. Family hit hard by rising energy costs

Verdict: LOSER

Energy reforms might reduce inflation eventually, but families won’t see real change soon.

Greg Marsh, household finance expert and CEO of smart money-saving tool Nous.co, says: "Support to bring down bills is a step in the right direction, but VAT tinkering won’t help the hardest-hit. Prices are still 25% higher than before the war in Ukraine, and record numbers are in debt to suppliers."

8. Dual earners with one child in school, one in full-time childcare

Verdict: SLIGHT WINNER?

They avoid the childcare tax trap and keep access to 30 free hours. But wage rises could nudge them into a higher tax band due to frozen thresholds, and nursery fees are still climbing fast.

Greg Marsh told us: "Stealth taxes until 2030 mean years more pain. A typical household will be £267 worse off next year alone, and for two earners on £70k the hit is closer to £800."

9. Retired couple with buy-to-let income

Verdict: LOSER

From 2027, there’s a new 2% tax on property income, plus likely mortgage hikes and no offsetting incentives. This group gets no support and takes a direct financial hit.

10. Young full-time worker with a baby on the way

Verdict: WINNER

They’ll see a meaningful boost thanks to the rise in the National Living Wage to £12.71, especially if aged 18 to 20, where pay rises by over 8%. They’ll also benefit from free childcare hours and the Universal Credit uplift.

Greg Marsh notes: "A full-time minimum wage worker will be £900 a year better off, and younger workers could gain up to £1,500."

Final takeaway: Who comes out ahead?

Winners:

• Low-income families with more than 2 children
• Minimum wage and younger workers
• Teens not in education (if support reaches them)
• Pensioners on fixed incomes

Losers:

• Families earning just over £100k
• Parents facing childcare fee hikes
• Homeowners trying to move
• Landlords, savers and EV drivers

Greg Marsh sums it up best:

Most households are going to lose out. Working families will keep getting pummelled by stealth taxes, and those with higher incomes, EVs or property assets are set to feel the squeeze even more.